Архив за 20 февраля, 2023

Energy market:

Soon we will have a lot of tea, coffee, flowers and exotic fruits. Kenya, a country in Africa, is increasing the export of Russian grain and sunflower oil. Kenyans have already reached the honorable 11th place among the buyers of our agricultural products. Of course, in return, we will buy everything they have: tea, coffee, flowers, as well as elephants and lions for our circuses, well, or someone will bring them home. And our stock exchange will soon launch trading in the Kenyan shilling against the ruble.

Drink purple Kenyan tea. Very helpful. Hello!

This issue has been prepared with the direct participation of analysts from eOil.ru and IDK.ru trading platforms. Here an assessment of the situation in the world and Russian markets is given.

According to OPEC and IEA forecasts, oil demand will continue to grow in 2023 and reach 101.9 million barrels per day by the end of the year. Both the agency and the cartel give practically the same figures. Everyone believes in demand growth. And they do not want to admit that high rates in the US can simply kill economic growth.

Representatives of Saudi Arabia publicly complain about the underfunding of the industry, and this against the backdrop of revenue for 9 months of 2022 of $180 billion, which is more than the revenue of Chevron, Exxon and Shell combined. Members of the royal family can indulge in nothing. You can continue to spend $1 million a day per person. It’s quite normal. No, it’s just natural.

Novak said Russia would cut oil production by 500,000 bpd from March. However, while the available data for February suggests that Russia is not reducing production at the moment, and sanctions, if they affect the sector, will not immediately. The production level is close to last year and amounts to 1.5 million tons per day. The EU cannot live without Russian oil, as evidenced by the loopholes left to circumvent sanctions. That is why we do not see a rapid move to the level of $110 per barrel for Brent oil. There is no shortage in the market.

Goldman Sach’s cut its US natural gas price forecast for the second time this year. Warmer weather conditions in February than usual, plus a shift from gas to coal in some consumers, were key drivers for the downgrade. The bank lowered its price forecast by 20 cents to $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for summer 2023, and cut its winter 2023-2024 forecast to $3.40 and its summer 2024 forecast to $3.

Сегодня, за прошедшую торговую сессию на площадке eOil.ru были показаны следующие результаты электронных аукционов:
в 10:30 Мск., топливо дизельное ДТ-А-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 65902 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+102 руб./тн.).
В 11:00 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-92-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 38450 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+1100 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-95-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 42050 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+1200 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., пропан-бутан автомобильный, базис поставки Тюменская область — 2600 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+1000 руб./тн.).
В 12:30 Мск.,гелий газообразный, базис поставки Оренбургская область — 2375 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-125 руб./тн.).
В 12:30 Мск.,конденсат газовый стабильный, базис поставки Краснодарский край — 34550 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-700 руб./тн.).
В 12:30 Мск.,конденсат газовый стабильный, базис поставки Ямало-Ненецкий АО — 18900 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+4700 руб./тн.).
В 12:30 Мск.,конденсат газовый стабильный, базис поставки Ленинградская область — 29350 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+700 руб./тн.).