14 November 2022, 12:25
Price forecast from 14 to 18 of November 2022
14 November 2022, 12:25

Energy market:

The G20 will meet in Indonesia next week. Again, they will saw through the world, and it will be up to whom and how much to get. Expecting news from politicians, the markets on Monday will behave carefully. On Tuesday, strong movements are possible against the backdrop of statements by the summit participants.

Hello!

From January to September, Europe bought one and a half times more LNG from Russia than in the same period of 2021: 16.5 billion cubic meters of gas against 11.3. The question is, why was it necessary to blow up the Nord Stream pipes? In order to then carry the same gas in barrels. This is an extremely unwise thing to do.

Judging by the reports, Germany, France and Italy filled the gas storage almost 100%. Most likely Europe will survive the winter. Still, they will not have minus 30.

If the current problems with gas are resolved, then the problems with oil and gasoline are much more serious. Replacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil alone coming from Russia will be incredibly difficult. Until angry EU citizens storm the Reichstag, bureaucrats can safely talk about an embargo on Russian oil, which should come into force on December 5th.

Drilling activity in the US has been on the rise since 2020. The number of active drilling rigs at that time was at a minimum and amounted to 172 pieces. Now there are 622 active drilling rigs. The maximum was in 2018 and amounted to 888 units. The scarcity of resources will push America to increase oil production, there is no doubt about it. And then there is Old Europe with outstretched hand. Oh, and Old Japan too. She never lowers her hand.

By reading our predictions, you could make money in the sugar market by taking a move up from 17.65 to 19.60 cents per pound.

Grain market:

The published statistics on the gross harvest from the USDA did not bring any surprises. We will have 782 million tons of wheat and 1,168 million tons of corn. Conclusion: everyone will be fed. At the same time, we see that prices, if they fall, then not much.

The grain market fell last week on the expectation that deliveries from Ukraine will continue. However, there are doubts that several million tons, which can still be bought from Kyiv, are capable of putting pressure on prices at the moment. The market is close to equilibrium.

Russia’s complaints that it is not allowed to export grain normally are not heard in the ruling circles of the West, but it is seen by traders who are in no hurry to sell amid uncertainty in a clear conflict between Moscow and Washington. There are still a lot of bulls in the grain market.

Inside Russia, grain prices continue to remain at low levels. Grade 4 can be found from farmers for 11,500 rubles per ton, which is 35% lower than the cost of this wheat variety last year.

Fertilizer, seed and spare parts costs have risen by 20 to 40% over the year. The current expensive autumn sowing lays negative prerequisites for the next year. If grain prices remain at current levels, then having harvested in 2023, farmers will keep it in storage for as long as possible, which may lead to a strong increase in prices in the domestic market next fall, even with good volumes.

USD/RUB:

Elvira Sakhipzadovna admitted that she does not like to «look for the bottom.» It was about how deep the Russian economy could fall. It turns out that we don’t have a bottom yet. But maybe that’s a good thing. That is, it is certainly there, but it is simply not visible yet.

The ruble is unlikely to be allowed to strengthen to the level of 50 rubles per dollar. Rather, we will continue to be around 60.00.

Note that dividend stories on the stock market will not affect the national currency so much now. It is now difficult for foreigners to change rubles for dollars and withdraw them from the country.

Brent. ICE

Growth scenario: we are considering the November futures, the expiration date is November 30th. The level of 100.00 could not be taken, but the chances for continued growth remain. We hold longs.

Fall scenario: As long as the OPEC+ position is united and monolithic, it will not be easy for sellers to cut prices. If, nevertheless, there will be a fall below the level of 90.00, then it will be possible to think about shorts.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Purchase: no. Those who are in positions from 92.00 and 94.00, move the stop to 91.20. Target: 110.00 (150.00) dollars per barrel.

Sale: think in case of a fall below the level of 90.00.

Support — 91.43. Resistance — 99.67.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental US data: the number of active drilling rigs increased by 9 units and now stands at 622 units.

Commercial oil reserves in the US rose by 3.925 to 440.755 million barrels, with the forecast of +1.36 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell by -0.9 to 205.733 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell -0.521 to 106.263 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing fell -0.923 to 27.241 million barrels.

Oil production increased by 0.2 to 12.1 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose by 0.249 to 6.454 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.404 to 3.521 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports increased by 0.653 to 2.933 million barrels per day. Oil refining increased by 1.5 to 92.1 percent.

Gasoline demand rose by 0.351 to 9.011 million barrels per day. Gasoline production increased by 0.274 to 9.754 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose by 0.203 to 0.489 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose by 0.155 to 0.992 million barrels per day.

Demand for distillates fell by -0.096 to 4.161 million barrels. Distillate production increased by 0.087 to 5.204 million barrels. Distillate imports rose by 0.207 to 0.328 million barrels. Distillate exports rose by 0.525 to 1.446 million barrels per day.

Demand for petroleum products rose by 0.786 to 21.267 million barrels. Production of petroleum products increased by 0.411 to 22.698 million barrels. Imports of petroleum products increased by 0.25 to 2.133 million barrels. The export of oil products increased by 0.634 to 6.171 million barrels per day.

Propane demand rose by 0.171 to 1.205 million barrels. Propane production fell by -0.03 to 2.509 million barrels. Propane imports fell -0.028 to 0.095 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.008 to 1.443 million barrels per day.

Growth scenario: we consider the December futures, the expiration date is November 21. Bulls are not as convincing on WTI as they are on Brent. Nevertheless, we keep longs. The prospect of a move to the level of 100.00 remains.

Fall scenario: shorts from current levels are interesting due to the good reward/risk ratio. If the market returns below 87.80, you can sell.

Recommendations for WTI oil:

Purchase: no. Those in positions from 82.10, 84.00, 85.00 and 88.00, move the stop to 84.30. Target: $120.00 per barrel.

Sale: if below 87.80. Stop: 89.80. Target: 68.00.

Support — 84.70. Resistance — 93.79.

 

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 12. We continue to recommend purchases, but now only when approaching 930.0. At the same time, we are aware that a fall below 900.0 is possible.

Fall scenario: if prices go below 900.0, then you can think about selling. Until this happens, we do not enter the shorts.

Gasoil recommendations:

Purchase: when approaching 930.0. Stop: 910.0. Target: 1300.00.

Sale: think after falling below 900.0.

Support — 969.25. Resistance is 1079.00.

 

 

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we are considering the December futures, the expiration date is November 28. We continue to recommend purchases. Europe will obviously not have enough gas, even if all the storage facilities there are filled at least twice.

Fall scenario: do not sell. Too many players are interested in rising gas prices. Europe will be milked through expensive energy sources.

Recommendations for natural gas:

Purchase: now. Stop: 4.800. Target: 15.000!!! Who is in position between 5.320 and 5.800, keep a stop at 5.300. Target: 15.000.

Sale: no.

Support — 5.324. Resistance is 6.526.

 

 

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of wheat managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

At the moment, there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. Sellers control the market. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers decreased by 0.1 thousand contracts. Buyers and sellers entered the market. The spread between short and long positions remained practically unchanged, sellers retain their advantage.

Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 14th. We will buy at current levels. There is a risk of prices falling below the level of 790.0, but this situation is too attractive from a technical point of view.

Fall scenario: if there is a rollback up to 850.0, then you can enter short.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Purchase: now. Stop: 776.0. Target: 1070.0.

Sale: think on the rise to 850.0. Stop: 870.0. Target: 700.0 cents per bushel.

Support — 792.6. Resistance — 827.6.

 

 

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of corn managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

At the moment, there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Buyers control the market. Last week the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 12.6 thousand contracts. Buyers entered the market, sellers were reluctant to close their shorts. The spread between longs and shorts has widened and the bulls’ lead has increased.

Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 14th. Quotes went below important support at 670.0. Falls to 640.0 cannot be denied. If this really happens, then we will buy there.

Fall scenario: sellers were able to seize the initiative. Everything is good, but they are few. Breaking below 640.0 will not be easy. We keep open shorts, we open new ones only when we rise to 680.0.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Purchase: when approaching 640.0. Stop: 620.0 Target: Target: 750.0.

Sale: on the rise to 680.0. Stop: 700.0. Target: 550.0. Who is in position from 670.0, move the stop to 700.0. Target: 550.0 cents per bushel.

Support — 637.2. Resistance — 661.2 (678.2).

 

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: consider the January futures, the expiration date is January 13th. We hold longs. We do not open new purchases. The market is in equilibrium.

Fall scenario: Like the week before, it would be interesting to open shorts from current levels in anticipation of a strong fall.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 1420.0, keep the stop at 1410.0. Target: 1600.0.

Sale: now. Stop: 1477.0. Target: 1000.0. Who is in position from 1455.0, move the stop to 1477.0. Target: 1000.0 cents per bushel

Support — 1423.2. Resistance is 1520.0.

 

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: we consider the March futures, the expiration date is February 28. It is necessary to close all positions and take profits. We have grown very quickly. The market is likely to pull back down next week.

Fall scenario: when approaching 20.00, it is obligatory to sell. There are good chances to earn on the correction.

Recommendations for the sugar market:

Purchase: no. Close all positions.

Sale: at the approach to 20.00. Stop: 20.30. Target: 18.60 cents a pound.

Support — 19.44. Resistance — 20.03.

 

 

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 19. When approaching 160.00, we will buy. After touching 160.00, prices may return to the level of 190.00, possibly 210.00. We hold previously open longs.

Fall scenario: The market remains oversold. There are no interesting levels to enter shorts.

Recommendations for the coffee market:

Purchase: now and when approaching 160.00. Stop: 140.00. Target: 210.00. Those in positions between 175.00 and 170.00 keep the stop at 140.00. Target: 210.0 cents per pound.

Sale: no.

Support — 159.90. Resistance is 183.35.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: who would have thought. After a bright bullish Friday the week before last, we got another aggressive week of growth. We will keep open earlier longs. The prospects for metal are excellent.

Fall scenario: now we will not sell for a long time. Most likely, we have a breakdown of the falling trend with growth prospects towards 2350.

Recommendations for the gold market:

Purchase: on pullback to 1700. Stop: 1640. Target: 2300. Those in position from 1675, move stop to 1640. Target: $2,350 a troy ounce.

Sale: no.

Support — 1701. Resistance — 1785.

 

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: on the slowdown in inflation in the US to 7.7% per annum and its acceleration in Europe to 10.3% per annum, which promises a decrease in the differential between rates, the pair moved to growth. We keep the purchases made last week.

Fall scenario: we will sell only when we approach 1.0600.

Recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 0.9930, move the stop to 0.9890. Target: 1.2000.

Sale: think when approaching 1.0600.

Support — 1.0096. Resistance is 1.0373.

 

 

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: there are still chances for the pair to fall to the level of 59.50. A stronger decline will be called into question. Next week, the foreign exchange market will be in suspense due to the G20 meeting. How it will end is difficult to say, but the negative for the ruble cannot be ruled out.

Fall scenario: only under extremely favorable circumstances, we can see the pair at the level of 50.00. So far this scenario looks fantastic. We don’t sell.

Recommendations for the dollar/ruble pair:

Purchase: on the fall to 59.50. Stop: 59.20. Target: 74.00. Those who are in positions from 60.00 and 61.60, move the stop to 59.20. Target: 74.00.

Sale: no.

Support — 59.63. Resistance — 62.47.

RTSI

Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 15th. We keep longs counting on the market reaching the level of 120,000 points. As long as Russian companies pay dividends, domestic equity papers will remain attractive.

Fall scenario: when we approach the level of 120,000, we will sell. The market is overbought, a correction is needed.

Recommendations for the RTS index:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 105400, move the stop to 108000. Target: 119400.

Sale: when approaching 120000. Stop: 122600. Target: 80000 (50000) points.

Support — 112740. Resistance — 119360.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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