Архив за 15 января, 2024

Energy market:

The problem is that the disease becomes chronic and everyone gets used to it as if it were something ordinary. The trend towards redividing the world is gaining momentum. The appropriation of Russian assets is not so bad, what will happen when they also appropriate Chinese ones.

A military engineer is also now a prestigious profession, and not some kind of currency trader. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

The US hit the Yemeni Houthis. The whole of Yemen is on its hind legs, as it should happen in a normal country. If Washington needed tension in full, then he got it. We are waiting for terrorist attacks. Sunk tankers, downed planes and the like. Trading in such conditions, without access to news, is extremely difficult. However, we can say that the oil market is unlikely to face simpler times.

The scenario with a fall to 65.00 in Brent, which could have been discussed at the end of December, has become unlikely. If Monday closes with a long green candle, then it’s worth looking at 120.00 for oil.

Let’s look a little further: receiving currencies of unknown origin from China and India for sold oil, Russia will sooner or later be forced to sell it for rubles. Yes, in this case we will have problems with the budget, since the ruble will strengthen, and we will have to go through several extremely difficult months, but getting “nothing” or cryptocurrency for oil is not the way. This is madness. Yes, this will be a breakdown of the entire established model, but judging by the visits of the Englishman and the Frenchman to Kyiv, the West no longer exists for us in the current realities. And no one will watch the French Olympics. And a tower with a bunch of rivets in your Paris is of no interest to anyone.

Reading our forecasts, you could take a downward move in RTS index futures from 114,000 to 112,000 points.

Сегодня, за прошедшую торговую сессию на площадке eOil.ru были показаны следующие результаты электронных аукционов:
в 10:30 Мск., топливо дизельное ДТ-А-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 86253 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+203 руб./тн.).
В 11:00 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-92-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 45820 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+820 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-95-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 55000 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (0 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., пропан-бутан автомобильный, базис поставки Тюменская область — 19616 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-934 руб./тн.).
В 12:30 Мск.,гелий газообразный, базис поставки Оренбургская область — 2972 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (0 руб./тн.).

The Independent отмечает, что поставки нефти из Индии в Европу достигли исторического максимума.

Нефть:

Обострение в Красном море продолжит держать рынок в тонусе. Мы бы и хотели бы упасть, но кто ж даст в такой-то непростой ситуации. Продавцы откровенно удивят если смогут на этой неделе пробиться ниже 75.00. На самом деле текущие цены всех устраивают, поэтому и сильных атак в обе стороны ожидать не стоит. Для существенного роста или падения нужно, что-то большее, чем обстрел идущих через Баб-Эль-Мандебский пролив судов.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.