Архив за 27 января, 2025

Energy market:

The new American administration has started running around the buffet and taking away each other’s leftovers. The food is not for inward consumption, but to throw at everyone at once: Russia, China, and Canada. All of them. They have such a national sport: throwing food. Soon they’ll go to the bathroom and start looking for something to throw. When you have no brains, you’re happy. You can’t even realize how stupid you are. Eating cakes, dancing with checkers, and having a ball on the catwalk while calling everyone to Mars. It’s a rare madness, rare. Hello to the analysts in the Kremlin. They should be drunk with excitement.

All that steam will blow a whistle in a couple of days. And the world will see the helplessness of an old log. Hello!

Yeah, and the call from Washington to Denmark didn’t go well. They’re not willing to sell anything to anyone. Wow. Why is that? Ha-ha-ha-ha.

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

What are we waiting for? Judging by the intensity of the US autocratic behavior, a black mark will be sent to OPEC next week. “Either you raise production, or… we’ll release a new blockbuster where we show you how we are.” Somehow that’s how this will play out. The situation is thinning. Why? Because Washington doesn’t have enough excitement for everyone. The beads (Apple phones) are selling worse and worse, but there will be someone to dance on. Iran, for example. But nothing much will happen there, because everything that will be extracted in Iran will go to China. Bottom line: Brent below 75.00 is utopia at the moment.

If the KSA and the UAE just drag on dancing to Washington’s tune (they will not increase production), there are chances of a crisis in the U.S. before the new president finishes his cake. Expensive resources will provoke a new round of inflation, which will lead to an increase in the Fed Funds rate, a fall in the stock market, and impeachment. Inability to impose their ideas, if they were still sensible, discrepancy between deeds and words, spending resources on dark deeds in other countries (in the same Europe: sanctions, duties, threats, military bases) all this will lead to the fact that one day you will see that 300 million fat people are unable not only to dominate the rest of the thin people, for example, from Holland, but even to maintain their own existence.

The Indians seem to bend to Washington and Russian oil sales to this country will fall. But this phenomenon is unlikely to last for a long time. Moreover, China will not completely cut its purchases from Russia, if it officially reduces them. And India and China are two very angry neighbors of each other. Delhi needs an eighth-generation cardboard war elephant, and it cannot be created in a declining economy. China has made a sixth-generation fighter jet. That’s competition.

Сектор наливных грузов по итогам 2024 года в минусе, он продемонстрировал снижение на 2,6%. Общий объем перевалки составил 445,2 млн. тонн.

Нефть:

Пока Трамп продолжает бухтеть нефть будет под давлением, но одними словам он её ниже 75.00 не загонит. Рынок видит, что Индия и Китай вынуждены будут пересмотреть часть своих закупок, как минимум на период пока продолжается СВО. Однако, существует вариант когда Запад, а там у них много философов, из-за сытой жизни, начнет подкладывать под текущее противостояние новую философию, например, философию превосходства, что уже было, тогда Восток может быть и заявит о своей независимости несмотря на экономические потери.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.