Архив за 19 декабря, 2022

Energy market:

Europe is going to be environmentally neutral by 2050. Zero emissions. It’s fantastic. This can only happen when there are no factories left and this entire appendix from Eurasia will turn into one big office, bank, parking lot and restaurant.

All strong immunity, hello!

This issue has been prepared with the direct participation of analysts from eOil.ru and IDK.ru trading platforms. Here an assessment of the situation in the world and Russian markets is given.

OPEC predicts a 10% drop in oil production in Russia in 2023 due to sanctions. However, Russia must continue to produce more than 10 million barrels of oil per day. So far, it seems that the Government and companies have decided not to reduce production and sell oil at a significant discount in order not to destroy the tuned technological process of production and transportation, counting on the normalization of the situation in the future.

The United States began to replenish its strategic reserve again. While purchase volumes are minimal, they will not exceed 3 million barrels in the next month, but it is possible that this process will gain momentum in the future and will be insignificant, but still bullish.

It is difficult for the oil market to grow now, as the increase in the US rate leads to an increase in demand for the dollar, which puts pressure on the commodity sector. In addition, the risk of a recession in 2023 is already estimated at 50%, which is a lot. Classically, high Fed rates should cool the economy. The stock market tells us that serious problems are possible in the real sector in half a year.

On the electronic trading platform eOil, quotes for diesel fuel claim to take the level of 85,000 and rise to the mark of 90,000 thousand rubles per ton. The move up may occur due to increased demand for diesel from Europe. A month and a half remains before the embargo is introduced, and during these weeks, purchases will be the maximum possible. After February 5, the growth of quotations for diesel on the domestic market should come to naught, as the supply will grow rapidly.

By reading our forecasts, you could make money on the Brent oil market by taking a move down from $90.00 to $77.30 per barrel. You could also make money on the gasoil market by taking a move up from 800.0 to 940.00 dollars per ton. In addition, you could make money in the wheat market by taking a move down from 840.0 to 762.0 cents per bushel.

And finally, Moldova announced that it had achieved independence from Russian gas.

Колумбия нацелена на 15% увеличение добычи сырой нефти за счет использования технологий «усиленной добычи», заявила министр горнодобывающей промышленности и энергетики Ирен Велес.

Нефть:

Следом за ОПЕК Международное Энергетическое Агентство прогнозирует рост потребления нефти в 2023-м году до 102 млн. баррелей в сутки. Так и хочется спросить: «Господа, а как же высокие ставки и возможная рецессия? А куда делся COVID, противостояние США и Китая?» Подобная синхронность в прогнозах о росте спроса вызывает лишь подозрения. Если это просто мантра о том, что всё будет хорошо, что ж, мы и сами такое можем себе под нос напевать. Пока у нас есть сомнения по поводу рисуемой нам радужной картины.

Рынок в равновесии преимущества нет ни у одной из сторон. Возможно движение как вверх, так и вниз. Новые позиции не открываем, старые держим.

Читая наши прогнозы, вы могли взять ход вверх по паре евро/доллар от 1.0410 до 1.0610.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.