So, growing food at a Central Bank rate of 21% and a loan of 40% turns out to be impossible. “Rostselmash“ is down. No buyers. Nothing to do. Everybody’s out.

Hello! Here’s to a good vacation. As long as it doesn’t take too long.

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

Energy market:

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been held in Turkey. The parties expressed their desires. And it became clear that Russia is not going to concede anything to anyone. Moreover, there is an understanding that the country must add four new regions, and if Russia’s position is not accepted, the conflict will continue.

This situation creates a lot of inconveniences for Brussels, as everything would be easy for Europe, if Russia were not a natural buffer between Europe and Asia.

The oil market will react if the EU and the US completely shut down crude imports from Russia or make them strictly rationed. However, the consequences of such a step for Europe itself could be bad. It will have to fight for resources, offering even higher prices for them than now. The Arabs, of course, will be able to increase supply. But will they do so? That is the question. And besides, several tens of millions of migrants will have to be accepted, or deployed (stacked) on the border.

Grain market:

Based on the negative situation with Rostselmash, we can see that the demand for new machinery has collapsed. Farmers prefer to patch the old, and iron can be patched for a long time. Lack of modernization will obviously not improve the output on the fields, which will affect the final result, if not this year, then next year.

What is the use of making a drone that can lift 200 kilograms in the air and cultivate fields when no one will be able to buy it. The Central Bank can’t lower the interest rate now, inflation will start, and keeping it up means completely destroying domestic demand. That’s the story.

Cereals in Brazil are breaking records. Corn will be harvested 88.4 million tons, 44% more than last year. Brazil is unlikely to stop. There’s plenty of acreage. It will win back markets. Including from Russia.

USD/RUB:

We are doing incredibly well so far. And this is despite the fact that there is a budget deficit, imports are not falling, and export revenues are shrinking.

The period of favoring the interests of certain groups to make money on the interest rate differential between Russia and some neutral country, which one we do not know, will be terminated by three red whistles that we will not hear, but we will see. Banally, by the beginning of the rise in the dollar/ruble exchange rate.

Brent. ICE

Let’s look at the open interest volumes for Brent. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the ICE exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 49.2 thousand contracts. We see an inflow of buyers. Sellers became a little less. Bulls keep control.

Growth scenario: we consider June futures, expiration date May 29. We continue to stay out of the market.

Downside scenario: there will probably be a strike at 68.20. We will use it for selling.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Buy: no.

Sell: when approaching 68.20. Stop: 69.20. Target: 54.00.

Support — 63.24. Resistance — 68.20.

WTI. CME Group

US fundamental data: the number of active drilling rigs decreased by 1 unit to 473.

U.S. commercial oil inventories rose by 3.454 to 441.83 million barrels, with a forecast of -2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell -1.022 to 224.706 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell by -3.155 to 103.553 million barrels. Cushing storage stocks fell by -1.069 to 23.892 million barrels.

Oil production rose by 0.02 to 13.387 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell by -0.215 to 5.841 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.637 to 3.369 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports rose by 0.422 to 2.472 million barrels per day. Oil refining rose by 1.2 to 90.2 percent.

Gasoline demand rose 0.077 to 8.794 million barrels per day. Gasoline production fell -0.327 to 9.383 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose 0.057 to 0.822 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports fell -0.042 to 0.933 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose by 0.256 to 3.777 million barrels. Distillate production fell by -0.069 to 4.581 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.062 to 0.179 million barrels. Distillate exports rose 0.029 to 1.433 million barrels per day.

Demand for petroleum products fell by -0.431 to 19.441 million barrels. Petroleum products production fell -0.1 to 21.491 million barrels. Imports of refined petroleum products fell -0.093 to 1.807 million barrels. Exports of refined products rose by 0.938 to 7.583 million barrels per day.

Propane demand fell by -0.685 to 0.416 million barrels. Propane production rose 0.016 to 2.838 million barrels. Propane imports rose 0.014 to 0.1 million barrels. Propane exports rose 0.533 to 2.201 million barrels per day.

Let’s look at the WTI open interest volumes. You should take into account that this is three-day old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers decreased by 10.5 thousand contracts. Buyers left in a slightly higher volume than sellers, but sellers did so as well, and in a volume twice as large as buyers. Bulls keep control.

Growth scenario: moved to July futures, expiration date June 20. Buying is not interesting. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: we will continue to hold shorts. Those who wish can increase shorts at current levels.

Recommendations for WTI crude oil:

Buy: no.

Sell: no. Who is in the position from 69.22 and 67.50 (taking into account the transition to a new contract), move the stop to 62.70. Target: 50.50.

Support — 53.95. Resistance — 64.16.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we consider June futures, expiration date June 11. There is nowhere to buy. Out of the market. Only when approaching 420.0.

Downside scenario: out of the market.

Gasoil Recommendations:

Buy: when approaching 420.0. Stop: 390.0. Target: 600.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 607.00. Resistance — 637.00

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we switched to June futures, expiration date May 28. Hold long.

Downside scenario: we are not selling yet. The price of gas in Europe depends, among other things, on the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Natural Gas Recommendations:

Buy: no. Those in position from 3.114, move stop to 3.422. Target: 6.000?!!!

Sale: no.

Support — 3.452. Resistance — 3.887.

Diesel arctic fuel, ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: continue to recommend purchases. Bad things are happening to the budget. Fuel will be taxed (hypothesis).

Downside scenario: we will not sell anything. There is a constant risk of a sudden rise in prices.

Diesel Market Recommendations:

Buy: possible. Who is in position from 64000, keep stop at 59000. Target: 120000.

Sale: no.

Support — 60957. Resistance — 71113.

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: waiting for growth above 1100. Sad market.

Downside scenario: stay out of the market, prices are low.

Helium market recommendations:

Buy: think after rising above 1100.

Sale: no.

Support — 788. Resistance — 1029.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Wheat. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), but it is also the most recent data published by CME Group.

At the moment there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. During the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 14.6 th. contracts. Sellers entered the market in greater volume than buyers. Bears strengthened their control.

Growth scenario: we consider the July contract, expiration date July 14. There are no good positions to buy. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: selling is now possible. Technically we are ready to be significantly lower.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Buy: no.

Sell: Now (525.0). Stop: 537.0. Target: 403.0!!!

Support — 491.2. Resistance — 533.6.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Corn. You should take into account that this data is three days old (for Tuesday of last week), it is also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment, there are more open short positions of asset managers than long positions. Bears have taken over! Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 93.3 thousand contracts. Sellers arrived to the market, buyers closed positions. Bulls lost control!!!

Growth scenario: we switched to the July contract, expiration date July 14. We will not buy.

Downside scenario: we can continue to short. We are capable of going very low.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Buy: no.

Sale: now (443.00). Stop: 457.0. Target: 340.0?!!!

Support — 436.2. Resistance — 451.0.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the July contract, expiration date July 14. Out of the market for now.

Downside scenario: it is possible to keep the short. Moreover, it is possible to build it up.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Buy: no.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 1059.2, keep stop at 1072.0. Target: 880.0

Support — 1036.6. Resistance — 1068.0.

Gold. COMEX

Growth scenario: we consider June futures, expiration date June 26. The situation is equilibrium. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: out of the market.

Gold Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 3115. Resistance — 3449.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: the pair has built back down. And that’s not good for the bulls. Don’t buy.

Downside scenario: dollar bulls are starting to seize the market. We hold shorts.

Recommendations on euro/dollar pair:

Buy: no.

Sell: no. Those in position from 1.1298, move your stop to 1.1280. Target: 1.0000?!

Support — 1.1065. Resistance — 1.1265.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we consider June futures, expiration date June 19. We should wait for an upward reversal. The mark of 82200 looks weak. It may be broken down.

Downside scenario: uncomfortable to sell. Looking for opportunities in other markets.

Recommendations on dollar/ruble pair:

Buy: in case of growth above 85500. Stop: 84800. Target: 115000. Consider the risks.

Sale: no.

Support — 82178. Resistance — 84145.

RTSI. MOEX

Growth scenario: we consider June futures, expiration date June 19. We continue to refuse to buy. Let’s go to 60000 and buy everything there!

Downside scenario: we should keep shorting. The situation in the economy at the Central Bank rate of 21% is getting worse.

Recommendations on the RTS index:

Buy: no.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 115300 and 114500, keep stop at 114200. Target: 80000 (60000).

Support — 103210. Resistance — 113790.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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