11 September 2023, 11:33
Price forecast from 11 to 15 of September 2023
11 September 2023, 11:33

Energy market:

Russians will no longer be able to enter the European Union with their smartphone, laptop, etc. Now the wealthiest tourists will have to pull a telephone line with them. And since it is no longer possible to enter by car, soon there will be videos of a Russian tourist walking towards Warsaw or Berlin carrying not a backpack, but a reel with a cable, and a DSL modem for it, to check mail, call loved ones.

Insanity is gaining momentum. And we are all about markets, our dear ones. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

Oil has consolidated at 90.00 and aims to continue its upward movement. So far there is only talk about the fall of China, but in fact the world factory continues to work, absorbing oil.

OPEC+ looks good, but the balance is very fragile. The Arabs have already begun to play on both sides, like Erdogan. Everyone wants to squeeze as much as possible out of the conflict between the West and Russia.

The G20 meeting took place in a rather tense atmosphere. For the energy market, this means that countries are not ready to give in to each other, which means prices will remain at current high levels. Are you for Russia in a conflict with Ukraine, or against it, this is just a projection of defending your own interests in many areas. Paradoxically, for many heads of state, unequivocal support from Washington and Brussels is unacceptable, since this would mean the loss of their own voice in the international arena.

Reading our forecasts, you could take the move up the DTL based on Surgut from 55,000 to 90,000 rubles per ton.

Grain market:

Erdogan came and was given 1 million tons of wheat for processing. The flour will be delivered to poor countries at the expense of Qatar’s money. EU officials immediately began signaling that this was wrong. One thing is wrong here: they did without Brussels in principle. We must make sure that the Russian flag and coat of arms are printed on packages of flour so that the hungry can see and remember where the “free” food was brought to them from.

Interested parties continue to fuss over the grain deal, making up things as they go. There have been proposals to open SWIFT for a subsidiary of Rosselkhozbank, but the Russian side is not satisfied with such handouts; in accordance with the agreement, it is Rosselkhozbank itself that must be connected to SWIFT. Let us note that in the current situation, Moscow can and should defend its own interests. The issue of the “grain deal” has turned from something of little importance into a matter of principle.

One of the problems when carrying out autumn field work is expensive diesel and its physical absence in a number of farms. That is, fuel is simply impossible to buy, it doesn’t exist. The issue reached the Minister of Agriculture and the Duma. There are proposals to ban the export of petroleum products in order to saturate the domestic market. If the problem is not solved, then next year we will have a much more modest harvest.

We are waiting for the USDA report on the 12th. After its release, volatility in the market will increase.

USD/RUB:

A meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will take place this Friday. Everyone is waiting for a rate increase. The question is how much. Judging by how actively current government bonds are being sold, the market sees a further increase in the rate in the future from 3 to 6 months. And there’s no point in looking any further now.

Russia will increase its internal debt at a rate of 3 trillion. rubles per year. The current national debt is 15 trillion. rubles, this is an insignificant amount compared to GDP, only 10%. Note that the more expensive the loans, and new loans will be expensive, the more difficult it is to service the borrowings. This problem will worsen no earlier than in two years, provided that budget revenues do not grow.

The ruble rate may strengthen slightly, to the level of 90.00, after the rate hike, but high demand for imported goods will not allow the domestic currency to reverse the bearish trend.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

There are currently more open long asset manager positions than short positions. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 22.8 thousand contracts. Buyers entered the market, sellers left in small quantities. The spread between long and short positions has widened and the bulls remain in control.

Growth scenario: we are considering September futures, expiration date is September 29. In case of a rollback to 88.00, you can buy. The market is looking at the 98.00 area.

Fall scenario: we will continue to refrain from selling, as there are no signs of a trend reversal. As we approach 98.00, we might think about shorts.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Purchase: upon rollback to 88.00. Stop: 87.00. Target: 97.70.

For sale: not yet.

Support – 87.63. Resistance – 97.71.

 

 

WTI. CME Group

US Fundamental Data: The number of active drilling rigs increased by 1 to 513.

Commercial oil reserves in the United States fell by -6.307 to 416.637 million barrels, with the forecast of -2.064 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by -2.666 to 214.746 million barrels. Distillate inventories increased by 0.679 to 118.602 million barrels. Inventories at the Cushing storage facility fell by -1.75 to 27.415 million barrels.

Oil production remained unchanged at 12.8 million barrels per day. Oil imports increased by 0.153 to 6.77 million barrels per day. Oil exports increased by 0.404 to 4.932 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -0.251 to 1.838 million barrels per day. Oil refining fell -0.2 to 93.1 percent.

Demand for gasoline increased by 0.253 to 9.321 million barrels per day. Gasoline production fell by -0.217 to 9.788 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports increased by 0.134 to 0.982 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports increased by 0.149 to 1.003 million barrels per day.

Demand for distillates increased by 0.164 to 3.866 million barrels. Distillate production fell by -0.006 to 5.017 million barrels. Imports of distillates fell by -0.033 to 0.13 million barrels. Exports of distillates increased by 0.055 to 0.191 million barrels per day.

Demand for petroleum products fell by -1.226 to 20.203 million barrels. Production of petroleum products fell by -2.086 to 21.888 million barrels. Imports of petroleum products fell by -0.046 to 2.062 million barrels. Exports of petroleum products increased by 0.613 to 6.494 million barrels per day.

Demand for propane increased by 0.35 to 0.989 million barrels. Propane production increased by 0.124 to 2.663 million barrels. Propane imports fell -0.008 to 0.093 million barrels. Propane exports increased by 0.061 to 0.16 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of WTI managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

There are currently more open long asset manager positions than short positions. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 61.2 thousand contracts. Buyers have made strong bets on market growth. The bears continued to retreat. The advantage of the bulls in the market has increased.

Growth scenario: we are considering October futures, expiration date is September 20. If there is a pullback to 83.00, you can buy. The market is overbought.

Fall scenario: extremely aggressive growth. Let’s put off trying to sell for an indefinite period of time.

Recommendations for WTI oil:

Purchase: with a rollback to 83.00. Stop: 81.00 Target: 96.00 (105.00).

Sale: no.

Support – 84.27. Resistance – 90.06.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we are considering the October futures, expiration date is October 12. You’ll have to skip the current upward trend. There are no interesting levels to enter long.

Fall scenario: sales from 1070.0 will make sense. We consider entering shorts from current levels dangerous.

Recommendations for Gasoil:

Purchase: no.

Sale: when approaching 1070.0. Stop: 1130.0. Goal: 930.0.

Support – 869.75. Resistance – 1075.00.

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we are considering October futures, expiration date is September 27. We continue to hold long. We are waiting for growth. While the degree of confrontation between Russia and the West is only growing, this promises the energy market a new round of price increases.

Fall scenario: do not sell, levels are too low.

Natural gas recommendations:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 2.137, 2.223 and 2.430, keep stop at 2.320. Goal: 3.900.

Sale: no.

Support – 2.499. Resistance – 2.863.

 

Diesel arctic fuel, ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: judging by the Fibonacci levels, the market has fully expressed its opinion on the current situation. We fix profit.

Fall scenario: you can sell in the hope that the Government will somehow react to the current situation. Note that the price drop, if it occurs, will be temporary.

Recommendations for the diesel market:

Purchase: no.

Sale: now. Stop: 96000. Target: 81000.

Support – 79082. Resistance – 92949.

Propane butane (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: we will hold a long position, but we will tighten the stop order. Thursday and Friday were not for the bulls.

Fall scenario: we refuse to sell. Sentiment on the energy market is bullish.

Recommendations for the PBT market:

Purchase: no. Who is in a position from 21000, move the stop to 21000. Target: 30000.

Sale: no.

Support – 16738. Resistance – 26582.

 

 

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: we will continue to hold long. As long as the market is above the trend line, chances for continued growth remain.

Fall scenario: the position is inconvenient for entering a short position. Off the market.

Helium Market Recommendations:

Purchase: no. For those in positions between 2900 and 3200, keep your stop at 3900. Target: 6000.

Sale: no.

Support – 4000. Resistance – 5164.

 

 

 

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of wheat managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

There are currently more open asset manager short positions than long positions. Sellers control the market. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers decreased by 0.7 thousand contracts. Buyers have barely become more active. The spread between short and long positions has narrowed. Sellers hold the advantage. Everything can change in October.

Growth scenario: we are considering December futures, expiration date is December 14. We see a new low. While we wait. Only when approaching 570.0 is it necessary to buy.

Fall scenario: sales are not interesting. There is no speculative potential here.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Purchase: when approaching 570.0. Stop: 560.0. Goal: 700.0.

Sale: no.

Support – 571.2. Resistance – 603.5.

 

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of corn managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

There are more open short positions than long ones. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 5.1 thousand contracts. Buyers continue to arrive, but more sellers are still coming. Sellers continue to control the market.

Growth scenario: we are considering December futures, expiration date is December 14. We don’t buy. We wait. When approaching 455.0, it is necessary to enter a long position.

Fall scenario: There is no point in selling. Off the market.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Purchase: when approaching 455.0. Stop: 435.0. Goal: 600.0.

Sale: no.

Support – 473.3. Resistance – 490.1.

 

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we are considering November futures, expiration date is November 14. Let’s continue to refuse purchases. Off the market.

Fall scenario: Brazil has an excellent soybean harvest. We continue to wait for prices to fall. We keep short.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no. For those in position from 1370, keep your stop at 1406.0. Goal: 1000.0?

Support – 1337.6. Resistance – 1383.7.

 

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: the dollar remains strong for now. We hold a long position, but we understand that it has little chance of survival.

Fall scenario: keep short. Note that the market is in equilibrium.

Recommendations for the gold market:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 1910, keep a stop at 1907. Target: 2400?!

Sale: no. Who is in position from 1940, move the stop to 1952. Target: 1600?!

Support – 1914. Resistance – 1934.

 

 

 

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: the dollar strengthens against the euro. We’re taking a break this week. A move below 1.0600 could open the way to 1.0100.

Fall scenario: like the week before, there are no interesting levels for sales. We don’t go short. The market is oversold.

Recommendations for the euro/dollar pair:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no.

Support – 1.0640. Resistance – 1.0738.

 

 

 

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: there is no point in buying at current levels. Off the market.

Fall scenario: let’s assume that against the backdrop of expectations for a rate increase on Friday, the 15th, the market will decline. We sell.

Recommendations for the dollar/ruble pair:

Purchase: no.

Sale: now. Stop: 99.30. Target: 87.00. You can do it aggressively.

Support – 96.73. Resistance – 98.67.

RTSI

Growth scenario: we are considering December futures, expiration date is December 21. Knocked out of the long position. However, after such an intense fall, a rollback suggests itself. We’ll buy it.

Fall scenario: we will keep shorts from 105800. If we return to 105000, those who wish can increase their shorts.

Recommendations for the RTS Index:

Purchase: Now. Stop: 100800. Target: 113600.

Sale: no. If you are in a position from 105800, move your stop to 107000. Target: 90000.

Support – 99370. Resistance – 103570.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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