Архив за 9 июня, 2025

American politicians have begun sparring with each other in their offices. This is a step forward on the path to true democracy. Biden jumped out of the way in time; at his age, he can’t swing his fists very hard. In principle, that’s how it should be: the one who is strong and not the most savage should dominate.

For studying the social behavior of higher primates. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

Energy market:

You know, the market is not falling. It is balanced and is not going to go down. Drilling activity in the US is falling rapidly. But on the other hand, OPEC+ will increase supply. Apparently, at a rapid pace, and apparently some countries will do so faster than others. Apparently, we are witnessing the collapse of the deal and are on the verge of an “all against all” situation. Who will win? The French lady who fills up her tiny Renault with an engine the size of two glasses of cognac.

As we noted a week ago, it may become difficult for Russia to supply larger volumes of oil to foreign markets. It is necessary to find the capacity to increase production, and these should be normally extractable reserves, not difficult-to-extract ones, which are expensive for oil companies. In addition, the goods must be delivered.

Another round of negotiations in Turkey has taken place. In the background, the parties continue to inflict significant damage on each other, which does not bring us any closer to a ceasefire. For the Russian economy, and here we are talking only about the economy, this state of affairs is acceptable for now, but the breaking point may be reached… in the foreseeable future.

Цены на нефть оставались стабильными во время азиатских торгов в понедельник, поскольку инвесторы сохраняли осторожность перед ключевыми торговыми переговорами между США и Китаем.

Нефть:

На фоне сокращения буровой активности в США цены не хотят уходить к 50.00. Как правило, если верить отчетам ОПЕК, спрос на нефть во 3-м и 4-м кварталах выше, чем в первом и втором, что должно поддержать рынок. Более того, становится понятно, что запас по мощностям есть только у арабских стран. Иран лихорадит, Россия скорее всего не сможет обеспечить большее предложение. В случае развития тренда на создание больших запасов нефти в каждой стране, можем получить дополнительный спрос. К 70.90 можем прийти.

Переговоры между США и Китае в случае их положительного… вряд ли окончания, но продолжения, также способны поддерживать нефть.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.