Архив за 25 декабря, 2023

Сегодня, за прошедшую торговую сессию на площадке eOil.ru были показаны следующие результаты электронных аукционов:
в 10:30 Мск., топливо дизельное ДТ-А-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 90114 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-1386 руб./тн.).
В 11:00 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-92-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 48403 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+1803 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-95-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 55550 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+300 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., пропан-бутан автомобильный, базис поставки Тюменская область — 12792 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-1358 руб./тн.).
В 12:30 Мск.,гелий газообразный, базис поставки Оренбургская область — 3033 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-157 руб./тн.).

Energy market:

China has virtually banned the export of rare earth metals. No one else will receive precious raw materials: germanium, lithium, samarium, cobalt and further on the list. If you want to produce something, give us technology and the Celestial Empire will do it for you from its raw materials and in its factories. The problem for the West is that there are no alternative deposits of rare earth metals on the ball.

And in the West it’s Christmas, but here we have New Year soon, and then Christmas. Even holidays are celebrated incorrectly. And China imposed an embargo on the export of rare earth metals for this, and did everything right. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

Tensions continue to rise in the Red Sea. The parties are pulling up to the Yemeni coast, whoever has what. Some are ships from the sea side, some are anti-ship systems from the land side, and some are just big firecrackers, so as to create an effect. The oil market, which was generally ready to collapse earlier, now has a new horror story in the form of logistical problems. Note that if Brent consolidates above 80.00 for several days, this may lead to an attempt to break through to 90.00.

On the other hand, on the part of the bears, we have a mutiny on the ship: Angola decided to leave OPEC being dissatisfied with the quotas that were determined for it by its “senior comrades”. If a chain reaction follows, a number of small and medium-sized players may begin to assert their rights. Then KSA, the UAE and Russia will have to cut their spoils, and simply persuade the rest. As if the ardent southerners would not have a new round of confrontation with each other. Moscow absolutely does not need a new round of sharp increases in production in order to damage its competitor. Then we will see both 40 dollars and 20.

Let us note that, unwittingly, the United States is now in the same boat with Russia. Firstly, their production is the highest, and secondly, it increased to 13.3 million barrels per day precisely due to the good oil price of around $80.00 per barrel. This is the price that suits everyone.

By reading our forecasts, you could take a move down the Gasoil tool from $850.00 to $780.00 per ton.

«Транснефть» согласовала для «Гомельтранснефть Дружба» увеличение на 10,2% тарифа на прокачку российской нефти по маршруту Унеча—Броды в направлении Венгрии, Словакии и Чехии в 2024 году.

Нефть:

В католическом мире Рождество. В России обычный день. В Китае тоже. Торгов сегодня по большинству инструментов нет.

Подъем нефти выше 82.50 будем рассматривать как предпосылку для хода к 100.00. Произойти это может в случае, будем писать как есть далее, в случае подрыва танкера в Красном море, что приведет к экологической катастрофе. Вот тогда котировки пойдут верх. Во всех остальных случаях, мы можем рассчитывать на то, что рынок будет склонен к охлаждению.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.