Архив за 18 декабря, 2023

Сегодня, за прошедшую торговую сессию на площадке eOil.ru были показаны следующие результаты электронных аукционов:
в 10:30 Мск., топливо дизельное ДТ-А-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 89033 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-17 руб./тн.).
В 11:00 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-92-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 47538 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-12 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-95-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 54206 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-1794 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., пропан-бутан автомобильный, базис поставки Тюменская область — 12650 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+1650 руб./тн.).

Energy market:

Our eggs’ prices are already exhausted without us. We won’t write about them. It’s better about the coming to power of right-wing politicians in Europe. There is a feeling that rainbow flags will soon come to an end, and people will begin to look at each other through the prism of practicality. Look, in Europe it will be like in Iran: they will start asking for gold to rent an apartment. Just a few grams. In such a situation, you can’t wave a flag anymore. Everyone gets to work! The euro will remain for now, but who knows, who knows…

And the ruble will remain for now. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

Judging by the behavior of asset managers, bets on falling oil prices continue to rise despite the announced cuts by OPEC. It will be extremely difficult for Brent to overcome the 80.00 level and go higher.

Based on the OPEC report, the cartel is optimistic about the future. There will be demand. However, it is worth noting that resource extraction continues to develop in ordinary countries (not superpowers): Kuwait, Libya, Venezuela, these are all members of the cartel, among other things, to say nothing of other states. Do you think the war is over the Gaza Strip? No, just for gas, reserves of which were found opposite this territory.

Russia produces 9.66 million barrels per day in the 4th quarter. For the 24th year they write to us 10.62 (as it was at the beginning of the 23rd year), but it is possible that 1 million barrels per day will go to the needs of the Ministry of Defense, and this additional volume, as it were, does not count toward the overall agreement with the cartel will do. Let us note that it will be impossible to maintain production at the level of 10 million barrels per day without additional exploration and drilling, that is, oil workers will have to leave something to maintain production and development. True, it is unlikely that they will do this in the extremely difficult year 24.

By reading our forecasts, you could take a move up in gold from 1840 to 1976 dollars per troy ounce. It was also possible to take a move up the dollar/ruble pair from 88.00 to 90.80.

Котировки нефти завершили неделю почти на том же уровне, что и неделю назад — в районе $ 76 за баррель.

Нефть:

Новак заявил, что Россия будет сокращать поставки нефти на рынок уже в декабре, а не с нового года. Сокращение может составить 50 тыс. баррелей в сутки, дополнительно к 300 тыс. баррелей которых Россия придерживается с сентября. С чем связано сокращение сказать сложно. Одна из версий: отсутствие технической возможности. Вряд ли подобные новости поддержат рынок, так как в цене уже заложено сокращение Россией поставок на 200 тыс. баррелей с января.

Продажи остаются пока более интересными, чем покупки.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.