Архив за 4 декабря, 2023

Energy market:

Already, and at the same time so far, every hundredth Chinese cannot pay their loans. The situation could get worse, dragging everything down. That’s all. It’s not for nothing that foreigners have been fleeing the Middle Kingdom for the 5th month in a row. Oh, someone would forgive us for our credit pranks… oh, what is this China, porcelain and gunpowder.

Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

So, the exporting team decided to reduce supply by 2.2. million barrels per day from the new year. Saudi Arabia managed to persuade other states to officially join the production reduction program. What we see: the market has rolled back for now, and it is possible that it will try to break below 75.00 on Brent, but this is unlikely to succeed, since the harmony of ranks in a number of “custodians” has been preserved.

At the moment, according to various publications, there is a global deficit of 2 — 2.5 million barrels per day. That is, now stocks in storage facilities should fall. At the same time, we see that supply will be regulated. This should lead to prices moving upward. Moreover, this growth should be significant (above 100.00). Otherwise, we have all been given fundamental noodles on our ears.

For Russia, the situation is not easy in November. The West has taken up all the companies that provide their oil transportation services. In the end, you will have to create your own fleet, insure everything yourself, and so on. There will be costs, but it will also create jobs. However, with one year on the horizon, the blow to Russian exports could be painful.

Reading our forecasts, you could take a move down on the PBT market, the basis of Surgut, from 30000 to 23300. You could also take a move up on the EUR/USD pair from 1.0700 to 1.0840. In addition, it was possible to take a downward move on the USD/RUB pair from 91.80 to 89.20.

За год администрация президента США Джо Байдена потратила 40% стратегического запаса нефти страны.

Нефть:

Весьма вероятно, что рынок попытается протестировать 75.00. Вряд ли продавцов ждет успех, но если он все-таки состоится, то мы отправимся к 70.00, что способно выбить из рынка даже отъявленных оптимистов, размышляющих о 120.00 и даже о 150.00. В более спокойном варианте мы не сможем закрепиться ниже 75.00, развернемся и уныло полезем к 105.00.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.