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21 December, 12:11Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 21 to 25 of December 2020

Energy market:

Current oil market growth can hardly be explained fundamentally. Nobody looks at the fall in people’s incomes, at the drop in GDP in Europe to 7% (latest estimates), at the fact that gasoline has already begun to be poured into tankers off the coast of Holland, because there is nothing to do with it.

It is possible that speculators are thrilling to push the market to 56.00, but then what? Will prices go down again only when there is no more storage space? So far, there is no hope for a recovery in demand. Quarantine and restrictions are everywhere. If, at the same time, OPEC will also increase production by 0.5 million barrels per day every month, starting in January, then we should expect a strong reversal at the «X» hour and a fall in prices to indecent depths.

Reading our forecasts, you could make money on the oil market by taking the WTI move from $40.00 to $48.30 per barrel.

14 December, 12:54Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 14 to 18 of December 2020

Energy market:

There are prerequisites for the fact that optimism in the oil market has dried up. California is under strict quarantine, and if so, the US oil reserves will grow. Growth by 15 million barrels last week was only the first shot. If the situation with the virus does not change for the better, and there are no prerequisites for this, then the market will fall.

It is clear that governments will take all possible measures to stabilize the situation, but until the mass vaccination is carried out, we cannot talk about any improvement, and even more so about economic growth in 2021. We are told from all information sources that next year will be a year of growth, but judging by what is happening, there is very little hope for this.

Reading our forecasts, you could make money on the growth of the RTS index from 112,000 to 138,000 points.

07 December, 12:10Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 7 to 11 of December 2020

Energy market:

OPEC + decided to increase the supply on the oil market by 0.5 million barrels per day every month, starting in January. With the proviso that each step will be analyzed and agreed between the parties to the transaction on a monthly basis.

The position was chosen cautiously. It is good that there is an agreement, and there is interaction between the parties. However, who knows how the UAE and Kazakhstan, as well as Russia, will behave if prices rise to $ 60.00 per barrel. After all, all managers have the notorious «market share» in their heads, which must certainly be expanded.

Note that drilling activity in the US is reviving. And it is not excluded that in the second half of next year, the Americans will again produce 13 million barrels of oil per day without a peep.

Reading our forecasts, you could make money on the oil market by taking a move from 42.00 to 50.00 dollars per barrel. And also, you could earn on the gas oil contract, taking the move from 340.0 to 400.0 dollars per ton.

30 November, 12:34Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 30 November to 4 of December 2020

Energy market:

On December 1, in the evening, we must learn about the prospects for cooperation between the OPEC + countries. Most likely, the agreement to cut production will be extended for the next three months. If we talk about a period of six months, then everything is not so simple here. It is unlikely that the same Arab Emirates will roll over their own commitments for longer than the first quarter.

Why can this happen?

In the current situation, the exporting countries will count on continued price increases, which, when approaching the 70.00 level, can raise the question of the need for a deal by a number of countries, including the UAE.

The second scenario is less obvious. The influence of the United States in the Middle East should not be underestimated. Democrats are gradually getting their hands on the reins of government. Blackmailing monarchies cannot be ruled out here. The collapse of the cartel is one of the political goals of Washington. If any of the major players in the oil market falters, energy prices will collapse.

We can assume that on Monday and Tuesday there will be an increase in the area of 50.00, and after the announcement of the decision to extend the deal until the 1st quarter of 2021, a correctional course will begin by 45.00.

By reading our predictions, you could have made money in the gold market by taking a move down from $ 1890 to $ 1780 per troy oz.

23 November, 12:32Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 23 to 27 of November 2020

Energy market:

The community of traders and investors is positive about the prospects for a recovery in oil demand in connection with the start of mass production of vaccines against coronavirus. Bright hopes are pushing oil prices up.

If we rely on the end of trading on Friday, when we closed above 45.00, we can talk about a very likely move to 50.00 in the next two weeks, should be in time just in time for the annual OPEC meeting, which is scheduled for December 1st.

What can prevent oil from climbing above 50.00? Only Biden’s harsh verbal comments. The new president, and apparently, it will be Biden since all Trump’s appeals ended in nothing, is able to put the United States in strict quarantine for two or even three weeks immediately after taking office on January 20th.

16 November, 12:07Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 16 to 20 of November 2020

Energy market:

There are no countries left in the world that have not been affected by the pandemic. There are more and more sick people, this is especially true for the Eurozone. The situation has also worsened in the United States. German scientists say straight that there is no proven vaccine yet, and that 2021 will be held in the fight against the virus.

How will oil prices rise in such conditions? All exporting countries need currency like air. However, buyers are becoming less and less, countries operate in a limited mode. Tourism and the service sector will not be able to count on normal conditions for at least two more years. People are cutting back on travel and minimizing contact.

In this regard, the reaction of the OPEC + countries to what is happening at the next meeting on the 16th — 17th is interesting. If there is even a hint that production will increase from January, the market will refuse to understand this approach and will fall.

In addition to the not too disciplined Iran and Iraq, Libya has been added to the number of problem countries, which does not want to discuss anything until oil production in the country rises to 1.7 million barrels per day. There was something like a truce and an active growth in production began immediately, which is understandable. But OPEC will have to cut something down somewhere.

Among other things, the number of active drilling rigs has been growing in the US for a month now. In the future, this also does not bode well for the market.

Acting in concert, the OPEC + countries can bring the market to 50.00 for some time, but it will be extremely difficult to keep quotes at this level.

Reading our forecasts, you could make money on the soybean market by taking a move up from 1050.0 to 1150.0.

09 November, 11:43Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 9 to 13 of November 2020

Energy market:

We can say that the Democrats won the day because leaders of the world’s major economies began to congratulate Joe Biden.

What this should lead to: «green» energy will be given the green light. Europe and the United States will follow the path of reducing atmospheric emissions. At the same time, at every opportunity they will trigger China, the number of dirty industries in which is extremely large, forcing it to rebuild.

The development of alternative sources will lead to the fact that despite the growth in energy consumption, doubling by 2050, the demand for oil will either stagnate or decrease by 1 million barrels per day every next year.

Based on the current situation, we can say that the virus is stifling oil prices. We are waiting for any comments from OPEC in mid-November, and possibly action.

By reading our forecasts, you could have made money in the natural gas market by taking a move up from 2.450 to 3.080.

02 November, 12:14Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 2 to 6 of November 2020

Energy market:

Next week we will undoubtedly have the main event of the four-year period — the US presidential election. The title will be defended by the current President Trump Donald, 74, Republican. The challenger, Joe Biden, who turns 78 in November, a Democrat, will try to prevent an opponent from re-taking the highest elected office in the country.

Democrats are more focused on green energy, which in the long term will increase the pressure on the oil market. For example, 65% of oil consumption is transportation. In developed countries, this figure is even higher. Currently, the share of electric vehicles is 3% of all new cars sold in the world. However, by the end of next year, the share of new electric vehicles will reach 6%. Given the zeal with which automakers rushed into battle, by 2030 it may happen that new gasoline-powered cars on sale will be in a clear minority. There is no doubt that in the event of a victory for the Democrats, Tesla, Nikola and less visible projects for the commissioning of autonomous electric transport will receive active support from the US government.

Europe closes on lockdown. Germany, following the UK, introduces restrictive measures from November 2 for a month. The losses to the economy are tentatively estimated at 20 billion euros. It will not be surprising that oil prices will continue to fall against such a background. We can see the 35.00 Brent level by Friday.

Reading our forecasts, you could make money on the fall in the RTS index futures from 112500 to 108000.

26 October, 12:11Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 26 to 30 October 2020

Energy market:

The OPEC ministerial meeting was as neutral as possible. The whole attention shifted to the next meeting on November 16-17. There were no statements related to a possible reduction in production. It was stated that the current level of production is less than consumption by 1 million barrels per day, so nothing needs to be done except to force the violators of the discipline of the past months to hold on to production.

Europe continues to plunge into the abyss of a new stage of the pandemic. On the one hand, hospitals cannot cope, on the other hand, the authorities are in no hurry to introduce strong isolation measures to save the economy from recession. While greed wins, let’s see what happens next. Note that if humanism wins, and serious restrictive measures up to curfew are adopted in Europe, then oil prices will go to an intensive fall.

19 October, 12:23Отчеты
Price forecast weekly from 19 to 23 October 2020

Energy market:

The thought-provoking loop of the OPEC meeting on the 19th is tightening around the market’s neck. The technical committee on the 15th expressed concern about the second wave of the pandemic, which automatically shifts the focus to taking measures to strengthen the parameters of the deal to reduce production.

As it turned out, the countries trespassed the agreement from June to September inclusively and threw into the market 2.5 million barrels per day extra. And no one knows how to force them, in fact, not in word, to comply with the agreement.

The cartel predicts global GDP growth in 2021 at 4.6% after falling 4.1% in 2020. This is an extremely optimistic scenario. Apparently, the leaders have no political opportunity to stop being in la-la land.

Meanwhile, the number of drilling rigs began to grow in the US, sooner or later will lead to an increase in production in the country.

A pullback to 35.00 Brent is seen as the most plausible scenario at the moment.